These entrepreneurs will first launch paying customers on short suborbital rides to an altitude of 100 kilometers outside the atmosphere with altitude enough to see the whole Earth from horizon to beautiful horizon, high enough to see an orbital sun rise, and high enough to enjoy the freedom of zero gravity.
The next step will be to encourage second generation prizses that will result in offering paying customers a ride into orbit. Hundreds, perhaps thousands of people will seek this opportunity--the adventure of a lifetime--to experience space travel. Once again, within just a few short years, the focusing forces of capitalism will demand that the first hotels be built in low Earth orbit. Hotels such as these will be built in record time, on budget, by multibillion dollar conglomerates headed perhaps by Hilton, Marriott, Obyoshi, or Shimizu.
Why Suborbital Rather Than Orbital?
The X Prize is intended to be the first of many space
prizes. A such, a goal that is financially viable is financable
and achievable in a relatively short (two to three year)
time frame is desired. Remember that only two weeks after Dr. Paul
MacCready won the £50,000 Kremer prize for flying the figure eight, Henry
Kremer announced his £100,000 prize for crossing the English Channel.
How Large a Cash Prize?
How much money is enough? That depends upon who you expect to win the
prize. In 1987, after five long years of work, Dick Rutan and Jeana
Yeager successfully flew the Voyager aircraft on a 25,000 mile,
10-day, nonstop, non refueled flight around the world (the first
Single Stage to Orbit vehicle as Burt Rutan likes to remind
folks). The extraordinary feat was accomplished with a tremendous amount
of ingenuity, blood, sweat and tears and only two million
dollars in cash. Following the successful flight, Peter Riva, a New York
businessman who helped the Rutans raise the cash, happened to be in
conversations with GE Astro and asked, out of curiosity, what GE would
have charged to build and fly the Voyager aircraft. GE put the
engineering through their pricing models and came out with an astounding
$220,000,000--over 100 times the actual price tag.
The minimum X Prize purse of $5 million is desired before officially announcing the prize, with an ideal purse of $10 million as the ultimate target. A prize of $5 to $10 million is in line with the various purses offered in the early 1920s escalated to 1995 dollars.
Is This Enough Money to Attract Numerous Entrants?
Yes, without any doubt. First, this prize is international--five
million U.S. dollars can go very far in numerous countries. Second, while
a purse of $10 million might not attract a major defense contractor,
that's fine, the X Prize is searching for new and
innovative solutions which typically do not come from the
establishment. Third, prize purses historically grow in amount
if not won. A good example is the Kremer Prize for Human Powered Flight
eventually won by Dr. Paul MacCready. The original prize stood at £5,000
sterling. While attempts were made, it was not won. It was later
increased to £50,000 and won.
Who Provides The Prize Money
A traditional sponsor for such prize sums is the private
individual--namely a person or family (e.g. Raymond Orteig, Danniel
Guggenheim, and Lady Houston). A person, or family, who wishes to
transition from success to significance while helping to initiate a great
event in human history may choose to sponsor this X
Prize. A second, major historical source of prize purses is the media who
sought to generate excitement for their readership (e.g. Daily Mail,
Boston Globe, Atlantic Journal, New York Herald, etc.)
Might Participants Get Killed?
Some people have commented that the X Prize will run
into difficulties because of the potential risk it poses to human
life--the contestant's life to be specific. Yes, contestants might die in
their attempt. While this would be very unfortunate, such a potential or
actual event should not interfere with the creation of the
X Prize. Deaths occur in competitions but the number of
deaths that occur in organized competition are very few when compared
with the statistics for independent participation in risk-taking
activities. The public understands this element of danger in
competitions. The Orteig Prize won by Charles Lindbergh resulted in at
least two deaths.
The conquest and development of space, like the American wild west, is a dangerous business. While it's not for everybody, those who seek this frontier should be allowed the opportunity to explore and settle there. They should also be allowed to risk their own lives in the process.
Dealing With Liability
Unfounded lawsuits are an epidemic in the U.S. which threatens many
aspects of our lives, and may effect the X Prize as
well. In a discussion with a wealthy potential sponsor of this prize, he
commented that his greatest concern in backing the prize is the
possibility that he might be dealt a lawsuit by the families of those who
attempted to win the prize and fail. To deal with this concert, National
Space Society and Congressional staffer Jim Muncy have drafted
legislation to make the prize liability-free. The draft legislation,
approved by the National Space Society Policy Committee, has been sent to
Congress and will be introduced by Congressman Rohrabacher
(R-California). The language of the legislation approximately says:
..The Congress further recognizes that experimentation with rocketry and other space technology has inherent hazards, and that fear of unfounded lawsuits--a concern not present during the Golden Age of aviation--may deter many interested parties from becoming involved in sponsoring or establishing such prizes. Therefore, the Congress has determined to encourage such prizes by protecting those who establish or contribute to prizes for space technology from such litigations
Who Monitors and Establishes The Prize?
A top level committee of qualified individuals and organizations (The
X Prize Committee) is being brought together for the
purposes of: (1) Identifying the funding for this prize; and, (2)
Monitoring/judging any attemps to win the prize.
How Can I Help Out?
The X Prize Foundation welcomes volunteer effort in is mission to open
the field of Space Tourism. You can help out by filling out our volunteer
form, or contacting the X Prize Foundation directly.
Next: Conclusion