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A theory that the Earth is pelted with thousands of house-sized comets each day was the subject of a number of rebuttals presented at a conference last week, while the leading proponent of the theory provided new evidence which he says further supports his explanation.
A series of independent papers by researchers at the University of Arizona, University of Washington, and NASA Marshall Space Flight Center presented at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting in San Francisco all found evidence for small comets lacking, and believed that the original evidence was instrumental error.
At an AGU meeting in May Louis Frank of the University of Iowa presented images of the Earth from the Polar spacecraft which showed black specks at ultraviolet wavelengths. Frank explained the specks as small comets, weighing 20 to 40 tons, breaking up in the Earth's upper atmosphere.
Research by George Parks, a geophysicist at the University of Washington, points to a different explanation. Parks said other images taken from the camera, including some taken in a lab on Earth before launch, show the same black specks, leading him to believe that the spots are just instrument noise.
The same conclusions were found by James Spann of the Marshall Space Flight Center. Spann compared the black dots to the random noise seen in other instruments that use image intensifiers, including night-vision goggles.
Three different studies by University of Arizona scientists searched for additional evidence for small comets, but failed to find any. Bashar Rizk and Alex J. Dessler found that if small comets hit the Earth's atmosphere at the rate predicted by Frank, they would create clouds of ice and dust that would be easily visible as one of the brightest objects in the sky.
"The two-hour periods after sunset and before sunrise ought to produce the most spectacular sightings -- intermittent punctuations of bright, rapidly moving points of light," they said, but noted, "Where are they? We should see them."
Timothy D. Swindle and David A. Kring noted that the elemental composition of small comets, had they struck the Earth at the same rate throughout its history, would have given the planet 500 times as much krypton and 30,000 times as much argon as found today.
Jennifer A. Grier and Alfred S. McEwen estimated that small comets should strike the Moon every nine minutes, leaving behind a crater at least 50 meters (165 ft.) in diameter. Images of the Moon from the Apollo missions and the 1994 Clementine spacecraft do not show the hundreds of thousands of craters that should form every year.
Despite the mounting evidence against the small comet theory, Frank held firm to the theory and presented new evidence to support it at the conference. In what Frank dubbed the "ultimate" test of his explanation, he and John Sigwarth compared data taken by Polar at low altitudes -- 3 to 5 Earth radii (19,100-31,850 km) above the surface, to data taken the same day at high altitudes, 5 to 8 radii (31,580-50,960 km) high. The high altitude data showed an 80 percent drop in dark spots, or "holes", seen in the data.
"This result is a marvelous confirmation of the reality of atmospheric holes," Frank said, claiming that the spots would be more visible at lower altitudes, but should not vary in frequency if they were just instrument noise. Frank called the instrument noise explanations "nonsense" at a press conference.
Frank, who originally proposed the small comet theory in 1986 based on data from the Dynamics Explorer 1 satellite, said resistance to his theory has been strong. "Despite all of the evidence that the atmospheric holes were a geophysical phenomenon and not an artifact of the camera, many members of the scientific community refused to accept the reality of the atmospheric holes because of the immense implications of the large fluxes of small comets in the vicinity of our planet."
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